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Aluminum Prices Edge Higher As Greenback Pulls Back, Traders Await Market Clarity


Post Date: 06 Jan 2017    Viewed: 795

Aluminum prices were marginally higher on Thursday after briefly retreating below $1700. The ascent came thanks to a pullback in the US dollar, which encouraged holders of non-US currencies to purchase US dollar denominated commodities.

Aluminum has experienced some downside pressure since December when it peaked above $1800. Aluminum rose over 13% across 2016 as supplies decreased following the shuttering of some capacity while demand picked up from China’s infrastructure development programs.

Even though it is typical for aluminum prices to retreat in late fall and winter, prices held steady through mid-December after Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November. Trump made a campaign promise to move to further stimulate the US economy, and that stimulus could potentially include infrastructure spending. That would boost aluminum demand.

Now with 2017 underway aluminum could see some volatility as traders try and gauge how the market will evolve this year. Investors will look to final readings on the 2016 market balance. Expectations are that the aluminum market fell into a slight deficit in 2016. It won’t be until year-end data is available that this will be known for certain.

Also, aluminum prices could see more influence from demand-side developments. Donald Trump’s pledge to boost infrastructure spending is a positive for aluminum demand, but more details are needed before this can be counted on. The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, released Wednesday, showed that Fed members had some questions about the details of the pledged stimulus. The other big demand side factor will be China. Aluminum was propelled higher in 2016 by increased demand from China from the country’s infrastructure spending programs. These programs are expected to wind down in the later part of 2017, and that could dent demand for aluminum.


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